File 44-B · Risk committee · Confidential

Bound for Nabora

A decision simulation — Groupe Lacôte, food industry. Eleven decisions, five families of risk, one trajectory: yours.

Note from the economic research department

Federal Republic of Nabora — PESTEL profile

A fictional territory built for this exercise. Any resemblance to a real country would serve the debate, not the diagnosis.

Political	Presidential system, rare changes of government. Incumbent president Adama Sowé is finishing his second term; the election is 16 months away. The main opposition candidate, Ibrahim Kessa, is campaigning on « food sovereignty » and on revising the contracts granted to foreign groups. Corruption perceptions index: 31/100. A France–Nabora bilateral investment treaty is in force.
Economic	74 million inhabitants, GDP per capita of 3,200 USD, growth of 4.8 %. Inflation at 21 %. Currency: the dalar (NBD), managed exchange rate, down 18 % over twelve months. Foreign exchange rationing: a 90-day wait for a transfer in euros. Dividend repatriation capped at 60 %. Local lending rate: 19 %.
Sociocultural	Median age 19, rapid urbanisation, 62 % informal employment. A single powerful union in the food industry (UNTAN). 78 % of the population is Muslim: consumption peaks during Ramadan. High power distance, collectivist culture, a marked preference for sweetness and for spiced fermented milks. The market is dominated by the 25-cent sachet.
Technological	Mobile payment is widely adopted (81 % of adults). The cold chain breaks down beyond the two regional capitals. 12,000 dairy farmers deliver through intermediary collectors.
Environmental	Seasonal water stress; industrial abstraction quotas under discussion. Milk collection falls by 40 % in the dry season.
Legal	National food safety agency: product registration takes 6 to 11 months. Halal certification is mandatory. A 35 % customs duty applies to imported milk powder. Local content target of 40 % within three years. The « Nutri-Nabora » bill: tax and warning logo above 8 g of sugar per 100 ml.
Groupe Lacôte	A mid-sized company from Normandy, 520 million euros in revenue, producing yoghurts, fresh cheeses and milk drinks. Flagship brand: Ôfrais. Approved investment budget: 120 million euros. You are the international development director. The board expects a profitable market within four years.